T&D

I know what you are thinking – T&D means training and development – yes you are correct, but in this case you are not.  I’m referring to trials and demos for a learning management system/talent mgt. system and so on.

You would think that after years and years of having trials and demos, the process to get a trial and see a demo would be as simple as me typing these words.  Oh, you would be so wrong.

While it is true that vendors have trials, actually taking the trial has become worse than in years’ past, especially with mid to large size vendors.  What is troublesome though is that there are small vendors who are applying this approach to their own platform.

Let me be quite clear on this — people want to take your product for a test run.  Having them jump through hoops or listen to your banter to assess their worthiness is not beneficial to anyone – especially your potential new client.

I often refer LMSs to cars because in many ways they are similar:

• Both cost money, and in most cases are one of the most important decisions you will make
• Both can be budget busters
• You test drive a car before you buy it, so shouldn’t you take the LMS for a spin too? (via a trial)
• The car salesperson either before the test drive, during or after it, shows you the features and discusses – hmm, sounds similar to a LMS demo (showing features, talking about it)
• Many people lease a car, well when you are buying your LMS (you are really leasing it – unless you actually bought the whole thing – and that is no longer common these days)

Demos

Similar to the increasing issue with giving quick access to trials, is an increase in suffering through a demo.

There is a continuance of bad demos, which again – why?  I could see if your product is brand new or the person has never given a demo in their entire life, but a serious chunk of time that is not the case.

Demo gripes from readers are on the rise, and I hear the same scuttlebutt at trade shows.  For every great demo, you hear several more that stunk.

Here are a few gripes (see if you land in any of these categories)

• The salesperson talked about the company more than showing me the product
• I saw lots of PowerPoint slides and virtually no product
• The demo did not match what I bought (still a big issue)
• The salesperson did not answer my questions OR the salesperson was not listening to me
• The demo did not work

On a recent call with a vendor, they went way off target and I ended up surfing the internet while listening to them.  I wondered how many other people do the same thing? I am guessing quite a few.

I continue to see a lot of people who should not be on the phone, giving a demo.  They are boring and monotone. 

I’m not saying you should be the next Bobby McFerrin, but at least be positive and engaged in the conversation.

And now..

Trends

A few trends that are hitting boost mode just in the past quarter:

Hospitals and other healthcare facilities seeking out LMSs including multi-tenant platforms – in droves – one vendor told me they had never seen this vertical as busy as it has been in the past

Companies who provide products/courses to the B2B and B2C channels (specifically through multi-tenant systems) – I’m talking about high octane here – I forecast this will only gain ramming speed (yes, Animal House reference)

On/Off synch being added by vendors in a variety of e-learning genres – a nice spike – I also forecast this to continue to grow

More LMS vendors – again, this is no where near death or the “everyone wants talent mgt systems” – sure, we are losing vendors, but the numbers are being offset by newbies entering the space. I cannot think of a time when there were more vendors in the market, then right now

• HTML5 in authoring tools and LMSs – not yet in high gear – not even close, but way better than three months ago

• Increase in number of vendors offering low cost systems – targeting 300 or less employees – I believe this will also continue to grow

And finally, a slight increase in the change from dated UI to a more modern and crisp UI – hey, I’ll take it!

Bottom Line

As I have said before there has never been a better time then now to be in the e-learning industry – regardless if you are a vendor or a buyer.  The winners are going to be your employees, customers, channel partners and even you.

Best of all, it is only going to continue to gain momentum.

Surprise:  You may have noticed that things have changed a bit here on the blog. A new design and look. Well, this is just a start. If you have time take a look at the channels area, where you can go to a specific category (i.e. one says LMS) and see all the posts. In the coming months, a video channel will be added – featuring quick tip videos from myself.  Let me know what you think in the comments section.

Quick Reminder: Follow me on Twitter to get real time updates (#ASTD2013 and #elearning247) from the ASTD International Trade Show next week (20-22nd for me) in Dallas. I will be posting a special nightly blog covering the day’s events, including my rock stars and products that hit rock bottom.  Plus, see video clips and hear from fellow attendees on the show.

E-Learning 24/7

Perhaps you see it as an extension to an already in place, ILT (instructor led training) program. Or as an extension to classes at your school or university.  Maybe you see it as a component within a blended learning environment.

But what if it was more than that.  Much more.

One stop shop

Offers a multitude of services to customers. Typically is a location or business.

Walmart Way

• One stop shop – containing everything you need
• Some Walmarts include groceries and auto services – including oil changes and alike
• Net sales of 466.1 billion (Walmart, end of fiscal year ending in January 2013)
• Amazon.com 13.18 billion dollars in revenue – Q3 2012 (Engadget, 2012)

Whether you like Walmart or not, it changed the retail landscape forever. As a result, numerous businesses started to copy its format. The biggest is Amazon.

So why am I telling you this? Because the one stop shops are now appearing in learning management systems, for the better.

The new LMS

If you are taking a deep look around the LMS market you may be hearing a new buzz word, “ecosystem”.  Some LMS vendors have used the term in the past because they themselves saw their platform as a one stop shop.  They probably offered you the ability to buy courses through them eliminating the need to go directly to the 3rd party vendor.

They also may have offered the ability to create courses for you, at a fee.

The problem though is that what was available in the past, no longer applies today.

Why? 

Because in today’s global market (not just with e-learning), the expectations of consumers has changed.

If they have a smartphone or tablet- they have downloaded apps.  If they are taking college type courses online for free, they are likely to be visiting a MOOC.

If they want to take courses on how to learn software or business or whatever, they may be watching videos on YouTube – for free or paying a fee to use such sites as Lynda.com.

If they desire to take courses through a marketplace or exchange they might be going to Open Sesame which offers the ability to buy and download courses – to use in any LMS.

Maybe they found a LMS that included social and performance management (assuming that is what they wanted).  Perhaps they wanted a human capital management platform containing various sub-systems including learning, performance, compensation, etc.

Or they decided to implement an ERP and interface it with a LMS.

Without realizing it, consumers (end users) were pursing one stop shops through e-learning.

The problem though is that none of the above constitutes a true ecosystem – a complete package wrapped into a system.

Ecosystems the LMS Way

I loved the term that vendors started to push in 2012 and continue to do so in 2013 – “scalability”.  It makes me laugh. What they are trying to do is to offer an alternative to an open source platform which allows unlimited users.   They assume that you will go “hey, I could have had a V-8 and a LMS that enables me to have unlimited users and all the features I want.”

The spin of course is that the open source platform you would download – and yes, it isn’t free after you customize the whole thing, can provide something that is only for you – designed the way you want and include only the features you want.  I know what you are thinking – I have created my own ecosystem – my own Frankenstein.

Yes it’s a monster, but it is not truly an Ecosystem

Right now you are saying to yourselves, “he keeps mentioning this ecosystem, but he hasn’t told me what it actually is and it is bothering me.” I hear you. No, I really hear you – telepathically.

My definition of an Ecosystem

For me a true LMS ecosystem consists of the following – all of it – not just pieces:

• One click – they select it and it zings right into their platform – they can also remove it with one click
• Courses included into the system at no cost – more than five – ideally more than twenty
• Apps, add-ons, plug-ins or whatever terminology you want to use – the customer simply clicks what they want and whalla it goes into the platform – think ala carte without the hassle
• A store or exchange – could contain not just the company free apps but also apps from other end users either for free or fee (the end user sets the price)
• Within the store or exchange or perhaps they call it a marketplace – 3rd party apps/add-ons/plug-ins can be installed for free or purchased through a 3rd party – but again.. you do it there – and one click install.  Examples of the freebies would be perhaps the standard ones such as Skype, Slideshare, Evernote or less common ones such as MailChimp, 280 Slides, GradeGuru, EyeJot, Palbee
• From the fee perspective – add-ons, apps or plugins could include Salesforce.com, Zendesk, Freshbooks, Echosign, Nimble
• Course marketplace – LMS vendor offers courses from 3rd party vendors – you buy it auto installs, also end users can create their own courses to use within the system – either offer for free or fee based – one click install
• M-Learning – native app, online/offline synchronization – supports HTML5
• Social Learning – you can tie this back into the apps – that is how I would do it
• Pre set list of APIs – again can be done numerous ways, and with some directories on the net having more than 1,000 of these things – you can get them and be ready to rock n roll
• Features that already exist – event management, e-commerce and alike – again, the features that are already in place are there because it is a LMS. If you want to go more robust with your event management take a look at Cvent

I don’t see the performance/talent management and some functions of a human capital management as part of an ecosystem – because it is not universal. A lot of people do not want it – and even though it could be turned on or off, it often is an additional cost for each module.  If you want to include it at no charge within your platform – and end users can turn on/off or one click then it is doable.  But from my perspective it does not make this a true ecosystem.

What is great about the apps and add-ons is that you can offer a CRM, web conferencing tool, video messaging, etc. – that people can select from and one click into their system.  You do not have to include it, and as a complete ecosystem – it is customized to the client’s choice. If they want to remove the app, they simply click out or delete it (however you set this up).   If they want to add more – they can.

Where’s the App?

Here are a few places to check out apps, add-ons, extras, etc. – that any vendor could put into place if they wanted to, and yes, if you want to use them on your own, you can certainly do that.  These are my favorite sites.

• Go2Web20
• Zapier - they offer a free package but also fee based. Oh, you can create your own Zaps – apps
• Discovery Education Web 2.0 apps
• Appappeal - over 3,000 apps
• Wibiya

Bottom Line

 People want choices, they want simplicity, they want easy – which offers them the ability to do it themselves and  they want a one stop shop. 

If you think about it, Walmart and Amazon offer the exact same things.

The difference is that they are not a LMS ecosystem.

But you should be.

E-Learning 24/7

For my forecasts, the magic 8 ball does not apply. Nor does looking into a crystal ball speaking mumbo jumbo and watching it cloud up and show the future.

Nope, it is based on studying the market and analyzing it.

Fortune Forecast Cookies

Have you ever opened up a fortune cookie and said to yourself, “How did it know that about me?” or hold onto that magic strip of paper and place it in your wallet or purse for safekeeping?

Well if you did, then here are some forecasting fortune cookies you should save for a rainy day or honestly, right now.

Pan, Zoom and Pan again

This feature is showing up all over the place. From an interaction (listed as interactivity) to a feature within the product.  Because the industry as a whole is a lemming, I expect more vendors to come on board.

HTML5 output

I am still stunned that this is slogging away. Right now I am doing a survey on authoring tools (more on this at the end of the post) and so far 100% of all respondents state that HTML5 output is required in an authoring tool.  I do believe that HTML5 output will continue to grow as an authoring tool feature.  It is time to realize that Flash output just isn’t enough anymore for folks.

Layers, Triggers and Actions

If you are an e-learning developer or instructional designer this has always been a favorite feature of authoring tools. The problem has been (in the past) that the rapid content authoring tools have avoided adding it as a component.  Not anymore.

In just the past month, I have seen quite a few vendors add this capability in their product – and for the most part they are all RCAT products. The numbers clearly indicate that is on the fast track for real growth in the coming year. 

If you are an Authorware fanatic missing the old days, you are still going to miss it – because while these capabilities are being added to tools they are still not at the level of Authorware.  I for one, like that because it has run its course (look a pun!).

Audio Editing

Another feature on the rise. The problem though is it is extremely basic. How basic? Audacity which is free – destroys it.  How hard is it to offer such a capability within your product? Hmm..not much.

Interactivity (Interactions)

While it is true they have been around a long time – what is making this different – are the number that come with the tool, especially with cool capabilities.  It is as if someone finally turned on the light bulb and said to themselves, “Sheesh, why should we give Raptivity the entire market for interactivity templates.”

How many interactions am I talking about? Well some vendors have more than 15 come with their product. Others have at least 10.  So what is missing? HTML5 templates.  Anyway, I expect this number i.e. number of vendors to offer more than 10 interactive templates to rise.  And I’m sorry a FAQ or glossary interaction is not what I had in mind.

Speaking of templates…

Uber number of templates

The days of giving five or 10 are sooo gone.  Nowadays I am seeing vendors offer 15, 17, 25 and even 30 templates. Each can be customized – to a degree.  Templates have been around for decades and often look like the ones you get with PowerPoint – which are lame.  These new ones can go from lame to snazzy and snazzy is ideal.

Screen capture and recording

You would think this has always been a standard with authoring tool products – but you would be wrong.  Thankfully that is also changing.  More and more authoring tool vendors are offering a screen capture and recording feature and again, it makes 100% sense. 

Why allow TechSmith or someone else to have the market for screen capture/recording when you can have one that does at least the same thing, if not more.

I expect to see this to be another growth feature.

Video recording, web cam recording

Adding video via YouTube or mp4 or Quicktime or whatever has been in place for a long time.  What is new – ability to record your web cam or add video from a third party device – DV camera or even – shall I say it – mobile device.

Some vendors who are doing the web cam record include it with the screen capture and record, others are incorporating a more robust video record capability – including HD.

The leaders in the video recording via a DV camera or mobile device – smartphone and tablet are the video learning platform providers. But don’t assume that their video authoring product is only to be used with their platform – no sir-re, you can use it with your own LMS (you just have to purchase it separately).

Wake UP! Slow growth mode alert..Slow mode growth alert

Here are some features that are in super slow mode – but shouldn’t be.

Gamification

Right now you are probably saying – what is he talking about – my authoring tool offers this and so do plenty of others. True, but what they are calling gamification is not gamification. 

Some gamification that hits the “Gee Whiz.. that sounds swell” rankings

• One vendor has a gaming raceway for quizzes. Oh boy! I remember pushing my pen around my paper in junior high creating a race game too.  Now I realize I needed to add a quiz to it. 
• Another vendor includes a FAQ under gamification – why not give everyone a free rock with that?
• A few vendors include game templates – Yipee! Nothing says fun like templates of static images. Me first!

Video editing

Seems like a natural fit, right? Especially when they are offering video recording. But noooo. 

There are only a small handful of vendors including video editing. I don’t care if it is only three tracks and basic, include it.  Bonus points if you make it more robust – if you can find one that is free that is quite robust – you can have it in your product. 

Scenario Builders with your own voice and text

Just the other day I saw a really cool scenario builder that came with a bunch of avatars and had a voice playing. You could also change the text. But what it lacked was the ability for you to upload your own voice.  It also lacked the ability to customize your avatars or upload your own face and customize your avatars.

There are some vendors who offer the scenario builder and the ability to add your own voice.  However the ability to do everything I just mentioned above is extremely limited.  I guess that is why I loved Go! Animate, but it is just a piece you can put into your authoring tool as a mp4 or some other format – which I forgot.

Back in the early 2000′s I remember offering my end users avatars with our learning platform. People loved them and then to no surprise, wanted to have their own faces on the avatar bodies. 

How many people today want the same thing? I’ll give you a hint – more than a bag of candy.

Thinking out of the box

There are plenty of vendors who are doing this – but here is just a short sample of those who are offering components that should become a staple in authoring tools as a whole.  With the exception of two features, the rest of these are in growth mode but not enough to cause a run on red soda.

• Storyboards – this is a staple to any instructional designer or e-learning developer – yet is rarely seen in authoring tools in today’s market – “exception  – extremely rare”
• Spell checker – should be an automatic feature – it isn’t – small number, I expect solid growth
• Image editing – several vendors are offering this – I expect more to follow suit – but not huge numbers by the end of 2013
• Speech to text and vice versa – small growth. The text to speech has a better chance at solid growth
• Action script programming, HTML extensions and other advanced feature sets targeting e-learning developers. Miniscule growth – despite a real demand more advanced feature sets for e-learning developers and instructional designers

Bottom Line

At one time you needed the Oracle to tell you where the future was heading.  Thankfully we have other options. 

But if you still believe in crystal balls and alike than I recommend visiting the magic 8 ball.

And let me know what it says.

Bonus note: I have a survey on authoring tool features that will be used for a blog post in April.

Please answer the four questions and you will be eligible to win one free license from a variety of authoring tool vendors that were listed on my top 20 rankings for Feb. One of the questions will ask you which  of the authoring tools you would be interested in winning.

Six of the top 10 are available including dominKnow, Articulate Storyline and ZebraZapps. The last authoring tool survey I conducted last year made a huge impact in the feature sets you currently see today in many authoring products. This is the best time to let the industry know what you want to see going forward.

E-Learning 24/7

It comes from fellow readers who send me e-mails or talk to me via social media. It comes from people I meet at events. It comes from me talking to vendors, buyers, monitoring the industry all the while taking notes and seeing the trends/patterns appear right before my eyes.

Web site stinks = product stinks

What has always amazed me are number of e-learning vendor web sites whose design looks like it came from 1995 when Netscape ruled the land. Frankly, it is unreal.  I mean look at any other industry, any industry and check out their vendors’ web sites.

I’d love to identify the top twenty worst LMS vendor web sites out there – but there are way too many to pick. The same for authoring tools.

You also can’t leave out m-learning platforms, assessment tool providers, web conferencing, audio conferencing and a couple social platforms.

Is it really that hard to make it user friendly and visual?

As a vendor you may say to yourself, “well it is not stopping anyone from contacting us or buying our products”, but you would be erroneous.

Here is what people have told me about poor web sites (most people bring up LMS vendors):

• The site looks bad so the product must be bad as well – the most common comment I hear from people
• I can’t see the product – no pure demo, and no screenshots – so the product must be poor
• I can’t find what I am looking for, it is too confusing – so I leave
• The screenshots are too small. I can’t click them to see them bigger. How is anyone supposed to see the product?
• The site stinks – the product stinks

What is equally of note are the number of people who tie bad web site design to poor product. In just the past month, it is the most common statement I hear from folks.  Which then brings back the “well no one is complaining” comment.

• Most people never complain. When I worked in radio, my program director told me less than 1% of your audience will ever call you
• How often have you had someone train you or present a workshop – and they were awful – but you rated them as excellent?
• Nowadays, you have 45 seconds to make an impression when someone visits your site – if they can’t find or see what they need – they are gone, so why would they contact you?
• How many potential customers left without ever telling you? I will tell you – a lot!
• When you visit a site – do you stick around if it looks dated?
• Lastly, there is a reason people like the “WOW” factor in UI, the fresh, crisp and modern look – which is a continuing trend; they want it – so why would you keep your awful look at your web site, when you product doesn’t have it.

Some examples of cool web sites (this does not mean the product rocks – it may or may not – rather it is the look of the site)

LMS – this includes sites that show a fresh, modern look

• OpenClass – you will notice that each screenshot can be expanded and you can also scroll to see more images to expand
• Coggno
• Administrate - granted it requires you to scroll down (not a fan) and has more text than needed, it still is a fresh and modern look
• Litmos - modern look
• Panopto - modern and crisp, I’d want to take a dive into the site
• Seminar - modern look, but scroll down (wish it wasn’t) – however, I’d scroll down and explore
• Upside Learning
• aNewSpring - When you click “tour” you see the product by section

Authoring tools

• Articulate Storyline
• iSpring Solutions

App and Add-ons marketplaces

You knew it was only a matter of time, but vendors who offer apps for consumers to select is on the rise. The added twist is the ability for end users who have created apps to include them in the marketplace either free or fee based.

While content marketplaces have existed and are also increasing, the app side of the house is moving much quicker.  Here are the ways vendors are doing it (which explains why it works):

• Vendors create their own apps – it maybe as simple as a new gadget such as learning game
• Vendors include an API marketplace and list it within their app marketplace or as “add-ons”, “extras” – one vendor who does the extra angle quite well is aNewSpring
• End users create their own apps and include them in the app marketplace so that other end users can select and add them into their product or authoring tool (the LMS and authoring tool spaces are the biggest app gainers)
• Apps can be free or a small fee base – on the vendor side they typically are free, although I have seen one LMS vendor have freebies and fee base; on the end user side most are free, but I have seen fee based
• We are not talking advanced apps here that cost a fortune to build – unless they come from a 3rd party company who is selling them – this is a new angle but I surmise it will grow by the end of 2013

What I really love about these new marketplaces is how easy it is to install them. The end user simply clicks “install” and it does it automatically.  Thus the end user does not have to deal with the vendor to get it installed nor deal with figuring out how to manually install it.  Simple and easy!

One authoring tool vendor who really hits a home run with apps is the app angle authoring tool – ZebraZapps which includes the app builder within the product.

If I wanted to get into the act, I would offer an app builder within my product – there are plenty of them out there or you can create your own – without dropping $$$$ to do so.

Quick Hits

Here are a few more items I’m seeing on the growth track

• LMS vendors including content/courses at no additional charge – either they built it themselves, came from a 3rd party partner or a combination of both
• Some vendors have it within a marketplace where the end user chooses what they want and simply click it to install automatically
• Each end user in a LMS has the ability to personalize their pages, no more everyone gets it and that is it
• An anti-Skillsoft attitude when it comes to finding 3rd party content, similar to those folks who are anti-Microsoft or anti-Internet Explorer
• You knew it would happen – the anti-Facebook like page for social – Many people I have talked to recently mention this when it comes to social, I recently had a client who told me they wanted social but not a Facebook like page
• Social tied to groups, individual courses and alike – Topyx was the first to do this, now others are starting to follow
• No sales follow-up; when I was at TK13 I repeatedly heard this from folks, this is always has been a huge problem in the space, but apparently it is on the rise – especially with those who do not follow up on a phone message (beyond the standard lack of e-mail or contact us forms on sites)
• Languages included – no more you select your preferred language and then pay a fee for each additional language, now vendors are including numerous languages: either as a language pack or what is becoming more common – automatically with the system at no additional charge

Bottom Line

We are only six weeks into the new year and already trends are appearing right before our eyes. Some are a continuation from the previous year, many are not.

This is an exciting time to be in the e-learning space.

An exciting time, indeed.

E-Learning 24/7

Thankfully, rather than just one person looking back and seeing what happened, we can all do so. 

I like that because it tells a story. The question though is will it be a happy or sad one?

On Fire

The year kicked off with lots of potential, lots of excitement in the air and lots of customers gearing up to purchase new systems, despite global economic woes.

Mobile Learning

• LMSs – Finally vendors took notice. Sadly though many still are in the dark on true mobile learning – i.e. not accessing their platform via a mobile web browser
• Authoring Tools – With only a small sample of vendors that are SaaS based, pickings are slim. Sure there were exceptions on the desktop side – most notably Articulate Storyline, but overall until desktop vendors see the advantages of SaaS, especially with real time collaboration and peer review, tablets will be slow going
• Web Conferencing – You would think that all these services would have a native app for tablets. You would think that they would maximize the power of the iPad 2 and iPad 3? You would be wrong. Frankly a few deserve coal in their stockings.

Market as a whole

Despite overall consumer demand (not just within e-learning) for tablets, and numbers showing that tablets are outselling notebooks, e-learning vendors as whole are sitting back and waiting. Those who aren’t are either offering native apps with online/offline synch or performing the shell game via the mobile web browser and calling it mobile learning.

The number of vendors who went mobile with tablets at the start of the year was extremely small compared to where it stands at the end of 2012.  A win in my book.

Online/Offline Synch

I am quite amazed at the number of vendors who really have zero idea on what the terminology of online/offline synchronization. I still get the yeah we do that, only to find out upon further discussion, that they don’t have it.  In the simplest terms:

• Joe EndUser (and yes, I know it is two words, but that is his last name), who is currently online is accessing the system or tool via his mobile device (preferably a tablet). He leaves the office or the coffee shop or his house and loses his internet connection. The courses are still on his device. He decides to bounce around the course and complete a few sections or goes linear and completes the entire course.

The next day or whenever he has a connection to the Internet, his data gets pushed out from the device and pulled into the platform or tool.

Synchronization has now been completed. All that data and information is now within the system and nothing is lost.

Here is a list of LMS vendors who offer online/offline synchronization via a mobile device, although there are a few who offer this but only via a laptop/desktop)

• AJ Square – but it is a separate module you have to purchase
• CertPoint VLS Portals – but only to a laptop or CD Rom – so not a mobile device
• Edubrite
• eLogic Learning
• Expertus One
• exact learning
• G-Cube
• IMC-Clix
• Learn Dash – a LMS on WordPress – but you must add TinCan API on your own
• All the Open source systems – again you must add TinCan API on your own
• Litmos – but only assessments
• Latitude Learning – only if you have the open source solution and you must add TinCan API on your own
• OnPoint Digital – M-Learning platform
• Pelesys – but the m-learning platform – available only for aviation industry
• Saba
• Steag
• Sum Total Systems
• Sum Total Maestro
• Syberworks
• TestTrack
• Upside Learning
• WBT Systems
• WordLearn
• VTraining Room

Cognetys offers it too but it is via their authoring tool partner, dominKnow Claro.

Authoring Tools

• Templates
• Avatars, Image characters, backgrounds that are business or work oriented
• Audio editing – still no match to Audacity, a free program
• Collaborative/Peer Review – but only one vendor enables the ability to work on the same course in real time with multiple authors – they just have to be in separate pages
• Notes/Notepad/Note taking
• Leaving comments with date/time stamps, making corrections, editing
• Increase in number of vendors

Social Learning

Overall, it wins the Grinch award for continued stagnation. Enough already with FB like pages.

Create your own news board, beyond just some RSS feeds? What about adding Goolge+1, video hangouts, or perhaps coming up with something on your own without replicating what is out there?

Thankfully, there were some concepts that were fresh and worked.

• Communities tied to courses rather than the entire platform. However those that followed this approach provided groups – with group chat, file repositories, discussion boards, forums, blogs, wikis and so on.
• Standalone platforms that were designed for their system but could be used either as a pure social learning standalone or via an API part of your own LMS. Best example? Ensemba by Media Defined.
• APIs of various social sites with Linkedin growing at a quick pace. Standards are Facebook and Twitter

APIs

A really nice upswing with more and more vendors having APIs readily available for end users (without the end user having to go find it). Favorites included:

• Skype
• Dropbox
• Yammer
• Salesforce
• Paypal

Newbies:

• Office 365
• Google – including Google Maps, Google Charts, Google Docs, etc.
• Mailchimp – e-mail marketing
• Google Calendar

Once Cold, now gaining steam

• Widgets
• Courses included in LMSs without you paying extra for them
• Selling courses online via your Next Gen Lite LMS, e-learning marketplace or even your LMS
• Video platforms, including video streaming – but still only a handful offering video editing
• Built in SEO (search engine optimization), e-mail marketing, marketing tools, CRMs (customer relationship mgt – used for sales)
• iCal – enabling integration of Outlook, Gmail and other internet e-mail providers tied to calendars within the LMS, thus webinars, seminars, etc. auto show up in their preferred e-mail calendar

My Forecasts for 2012

In looking back, six out of seven turned out to be on the mark. 

The ones that came to fruition were:

• Talent management – continued growth, rapid at that. 
• Social learning – forecast was that it would remain flat. It did.
• M-Learning – expecting it to be hot, and it hasn’t disappointed. Sure you could argue that not everyone has gone online/offline synch. Considering that the number was zero at the start of 2012. I would say that there definitely was a boost.

 As for m-learning in general related to tablets, there are a lot of systems offering it, even if it is via the mobile web browser. Numbers at the start of 2012 were dismal.  

• SaaS systems – i.e. LMSs – Roughly 95% are SaaS based at the end of 2012, with a percentile offering both options but pushing more for SaaS only.
• Online Authoring systems – the forecast stated that there would be a huge upswing and continued growth. Again, the numbers show this to be true.

The vast majority of these OASs are now next gen lite LMSs, but there are those who list themselves as collaborative learning environments, and an authoring system that is pure SaaS.  

One sort of did

• My forecast on Kinect identified that it would be quite slow out of the gate in 2012, but that there would be some growth by the end of the year with some vendors. The forecast stating growth in K-12 did.
• Kinect vendors in the consumer space did show up, they just didn’t cross over to the e-learning side, with the exception of two. 

One dud

• Augmented Reality. Everything indicated that this was going to show up in 2012, and it did in the consumer marketplace, but not really on the e-learning side. Sure there were some exceptions with people doing their own thing, but from an e-learning vendor standpoint, just did not happen. 

While I did stipulate that I saw Kinect technology more so than AR in e-learning, the truth be told, vendors stayed away. 

Bottom Line

Overall the e-learning market continued to show gains and benefits across the board.  This really could be seen at the ASTD International show which has always been known as a true ILT (instructor led training) angle, with materials.  

This year the show by my estimation was 60% pure instructor led/classroom based products and 40% e-learning. Some of the ILT vendors were providing components and offerings that were pure online. 

Based on conversations I had with vendors across the space, everyone told me that the broke sales numbers. Not just in comparison to the past couple of years, but all time (for those who were more than three years old). 

To me, this is the real story. 

And who doesn’t like happy endings?

Please note: There will not be a blog next week. The next blog will be on January 3, 2013 and will cover Learning Record Stores. 

E-Learning 24/7

For the rest of us, it isn’t, unless you see the latest takeaways as examples of what is to come or more importantly what hasn’t – which is really a could be doomsday to many vendors – unless they wake up!

Authoring Tools

In my newest directory, I have 138 vendors. Of those:

• 45 are SaaS based
• 37 support m-learning
• 12 output to HTML5
• 11 desktop authoring tools work with Mac OS
• 4 desktop authoring tool vendors work with Windows 8

No need to panic or maybe you should

Let’s see Microsoft has only been announcing the coming of Windows 8 for several months, but as usual desktop authoring tools are behind the times. Nothing like keeping their track record of missing the signs. This is nothing new when it comes to waiting until after the end of days to wake up.

I am hearing from some vendors that they are having issues with Windows 8 and that Microsoft typically makes it difficult to really make it work. Here is the thing, you have the money and resources to offer collaboration, templates and avatars. Surely, you can get it done.

Articulate has told me that they have an issue with Windows 8 for both Storyline and Studio, but are working on fixing it. At least they are doing something. Desktop authoring tool vendors who realized this thing was fast approaching are:

• Articulate
• cm-Group
• Techsmith – Camtasia 8

Speaking of holding in a pattern, here is a list of vendors – SaaS and desktop who output to HTML5 (please note: that this does not include authoring tool vendors whose product can be seen on a tablet, including the iPad – which is achieved thorough a web browser)

• dominKnow Claro
• Articulate Storyline, Articulate Studio 13 when launched will be able to do so too
• iSpring Pro but it only converts PPT to HTML5
• Adobe Captivate 6
• cm-Group Luminosity
• Epic GoMo Authoring tool
• Callidus Cloud – Rapid Intake Authoring Suite
• Kookabura Studios – but you need their AppCobra product
• SoftChalk 7
• Lectora Inspire
• VIDIZMO
• Adobe eLearning Studio but it is with Dreamweaver and you need to download the HTML5 kit

E-Learning Vendors and Apps

I’m not sure if it is going to take a predication by the late Edgar Cayce or Nostradamus to see the need to have native apps for people to download with the numerous m-learning, Mac store or Windows 8.

While vendors seem more to be interested in trying to get their product on such tool support lists with Intel or Salesforce.com, they are just are failing to grasp the enormous potential with apps.

Do the Math

• Apple – 736,00 apps (as of Nov 2012), reportedly Apple has approved 1 million apps
• Google Play – 700,000 apps
• Windows 8 – 20,000 apps (not bad since it launched two months ago), Microsoft executives are reporting that by Jan. 2013, 100,000 apps

Total number of downloads

• Google Play – 25 Billion (Sept 2012)
• Apple – 35 billion (Oct 2012)

Free apps

Latest projections indicate that nearly 90% are free apps.

E-Learning Apps

I’m still working the numbers and will update in December, but excluding apps for kids – which is quite prominent, the number of e-learning apps in the various genres is less than 65. Talk about impressive – NOT!

Doomsday Scenario #2 – Mobile, what’s that you say?

In my latest survey on m-learning, end users are screaming on the following:

1. My LMS must include m-learning for tablets

• 44% Absolutely
• 44% say “I think so”

2. I want my LMS to offer on/off synch for mobile

• 72% said yes

3. How satisfied are you with the current state of m-learning with tablets?

• 39% somewhat unsatisfied
• 22% very satisfied

4. TinCan should be a requirement for my LMS

• 44% Yes
• 50% Unsure

5. How important is it for your authoring tool to output to HTML5?

• 67% extremely important

Okay, now let’s go back to the number of authoring tool vendors who currently output to HTML5

8.7%!

Doomsday scenario #3 – End users want scalability, but we can’t afford to offer it

A few years ago, there were a handful of LMS vendors who offered an e-commerce model for those folks who sold courses to anyone, whether it be B2B, B2C or even in the educational setting.

Of those, it was extremely rare to find vendors who publicly offered this option.

Nowadays finding LMS vendors who enable this capability are nearly zero. Sure you can buy the system itself and do what you want -as in you actually own the thing – rather than leasing it which is really what you are doing, when you “buy” it.

Offering the e-commerce model just isn’t happening, but it should.

If you have never heard of an e-commerce model in its true essence, here is how it works

• LMS vendor provides you with their system for free
• LMS vendor allows you to set your own cost for courses, content, products, etc.
• LMS vendor takes a small percentile of each course, etc. sold – some will say a minimum of $5 or X percentile
• The more courses, etc. sold the more money the vendor can generate

Benefits

• Higher revenue potential. Let’s say that my system costs 15K, but the client for example, is going to sell their courses to college students or association members or whomever.

They forecast 5,000 in year 10,000 in year two. In the end, they actually sell 25K courses in year #1. And let’s say that each course is $30.

What would you rather have – a client who goes with Moodle or one who stays with you? You may say to yourself, “well for 15,000 users our system will run them 65K, which is better for us”. But in real world, they are unlikely to go with your system if it costs that number and only goes up with more buyers.

• You crush the free open source model for people especially in the education sector – higher education or those who sell to B2C or association members
• You do massive damage to those who offer unlimited users, because the potential revenue can be quite high
• Your market share in your verticals could be higher than even your best projections

Yeah, it’s risky, but e-learning business is a risky endeavor to begin with and if you haven’t figured out that yet, perhaps it is time to re-consider your business in this space.

You want to play it safe? Move to a warm climate and offer putt-putt.

Why would a vendor even want to take that risk?

• There are more customers today who are seeking a system that will enable them to sell courses, content, etc. to the masses
• More customers are going subscription based than in the past
• More customers do not have the outlay to pay $$$$ for users that may exceed 10,000 in a short time frame
• More customers are going multi-tenent or extended enterprise with their own customers
• The biggest reason people go with Moodle and other open source freebies is that they can offer unlimited # of end users without paying through the roof

Bottom Line

If there is one thing I have learned, live is full of risk. Yeah, the world could end tomorrow. But, what if it doesn’t? What then?

Will you hope that your authoring product builds market share even though it doesn’t offer m-learning?

Will you assume that HTML5 output is just a fad, like the pet rock?

Will you assume that end users are not seeking apps for their tablets or other mobile devices?

Will you allow early adopters in this space to get out ahead of you and steal your customers or potential customers?

Will you sit by and wait?

I won’t and I believe neither will your audience.

Unless they are in their subterranean shelter waiting for 12-21-2012.

Which I am going to guess, their not.

E-Learning 24/7

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Social Learning Platform

Just last week, I saw the best social learning platform ever. Seriously, awesome. Best of all, even if you choose not to use it, the product is available to the public as a new social media site.

From a social learning standpoint

• Built by NetExam and thus comes with the platform
• Can be also a standalone and/or interfaced with any learning management system or learning platform
• Focuses on the push and pull of information based on interests on relevant topics to the end users
• Comes with analytical graph
• Includes badges, ratings, comments, leader-board and peers
• Reminds me of part Pinterest, part StumbleUpon, part Scoop it! and part very cool
• Although it says “beta” it is live
• Product name is Ensemba

Just a few screen shots

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Learning Management Systems

• Built-in help desk – It is on the rise and I expect it to continue into 2013. With systems it comes in many flavors – with the most common being a ticket issue system that is tied into the end user side. End user has issue, submits ticket, receives update notifications until it is resolved. Can equally be used on the admin side, but the power is end user.

Benefit: Reduces calls to administrator and training/learning person who oversees the system and department. Reduces costs to vendor, which is big because everyone knows that support inc. tech support is costly to a company.

• Personalization – Appearing in multiple ways but the super size winners are those that enable each end user to select their own language, own widgets/gadgets and move block around. Learners like flexibility and what is better than having something flexible for their learning?

Benefit: Tailoring has always been a key to successful training and learning. Just because you purchase an out of the box system doesn’t mean that you stop at skinning and branding. In just the past few months this feature is exploding. Expect it to continue.

• Online/offline synchronization for mobile learning with tablets – The number one request I receive from my consumer clients is whether they system has a m-learning app that works with tablets and online/offline synchronization. Considering that my consumer clients range from small companies to those over 125,000 users, I’d say that is relevant. I’m also hearing it from folks in general.

While many vendors pitch mobile learning they seem to be stuck on the idea that people are not interested in online/offline synchronization. A couple of vendors told me they think it will be a fad. Apparently they are not reading what is taking place in the consumer market – worldwide.

Yes many forecasters are saying that 4G will be a huge factor in tablet use, but anyone who has purchased a tablet knows that data plans are not cheap and that multimedia being streamed or viewed eats up data, which in turn increases your bill.

Wi-Fi still dominates the market and people who use tablets tend to use “apps” that are self-contained. While everyone concedes (at least those who follow apps and tech) that the future will be HTML5 apps over native apps, they will still be self-contained.

Benefit: People are demanding it. Every month you waste debating if your system should include, someone else – i.e. your competitors are using it. From the LMS standpoint, this will be a hot ticket item in 2013. If you choose to sit it out for a bit, you will make a monster mistake.

• Dashboards for learners and administrators – One of the key reasons Absorb is so successful (IMO) is the power of its administration dashboard. It was one of the first ones to have a graphs and a quick overview.

Why do dashboards matter? Well let me put it to you this way – when you have to go to your boss (who could be the COO, CEO or another high level senior exec) and want to provide an overview on where things stand – what do you give them? Lots of reports or a quick dashboard will key data points and a couple of graphs? My guess is the latter.

Administrators often have another role within a company/organization, etc., and as a result time is crucial. People like right to the point data and information, and there is nothing worse then having to go find it then generate a report that contains an overview on where things stand.

The same can be said for learners. They like a dashboard which could include recommended courses, status of courses using graphical images, immediate information that is relevant to them.

Benefit: Places relevant information in front the learner’s eyes the moment they enter the system. Too many systems seem to focus on the administrator angle and not the learner angle. Why can’t you do both?

While this is moving upward, the biggest swing is in an overhaul of user interface. As I have noted in the past, I know of many vendors who are working behind the scenes to change their UI. Folks like crisp and clean.

Video Learning Platforms

The next wave to hit the e-learning scene and in less than six months has become bigger than social learning platforms in the last four years. Heck I would even say mobile learning specific platforms as well. Key players are

• Vidizmo
• Panopto – #2 favorite
• In2itive
• OpenLearn – also has a LMS which you can tie it into
• Sharestream
• Kaltura
• Mediacore
• Academize – for education space
• Vizigy – #1 Personal fav

Pricing

You would think that with the economic downturn, albeit it is starting to grow, e-learning vendors as a whole including LMSs would get it.

Sadly that is not happening. Yeah there are a few who can deliver strong feature sets with a new price point but there are others who still believe that charging outrageous pricing on optional components, let alone their system themselves is the way to go.

One vendor charges 10K for SSO and 5K per each additional language. Are you kidding me? Outrageous.

Another vendor who is trying to penetrate the corporate space makes some of the Big Dog vendors look like a bargain.

Let’s not forget the uber cost of some setup fees. No offense but why does someone have to drop over 15K for a SaaS system? And with data migration fees I’ve seen some realistic pricing but some vendors have no problem charging over 5K for records.

A couple of vendors quoted me plus 10K for less than 500 records. No offense here, but if the end user can download their own data file (which they can) and upload it into their new system (which they can), why would they want to pay over 5K to do so?

Vendors love to pitch time and effort but give me a break.

What time? I don’t care if it is 100,000 records or 250 records, it doesn’t take that long to pull the data file and shove it into the new system, unless the person who is doing it is Thomas Jefferson back from the dead.

The only amount of time is the time to populate the new system – less records less time, more records more time – oh automatically mind you.

Oh and as aforementioned in last week’s post, some authoring tool vendors think that everyone can drop over $1,400, heck over $2,500 for an authoring tool (for 1 license). Some web conferencing vendors (and you know who you are) believe it is still 2006 with their pricing.

Multiple Editions of the same system

Compared to the Exorcist, Sinister, The Shining and for folks that grew up in the 50′s (Psycho – or so I have been told), this angle is right up there in terms of shock and fright.

Most of the time it is the exact same system with a fewer bells or whistles or a couple of add-ons to give it the feel of “different version”.

The real downside to this is that many vendors fail to realize that they are competing with themselves when they offer say a corporate edition, e-commerce edition and alike. Heck I’ve seen vendors who offer a K-12 and Higher Ed editions that were virtually identical.

Bottom Line

I really believe that some e-learning vendors would prefer to have their clients become zombies, accepting the product as it is – and as it was – with just a couple of tasty treats to make them come back for more.

Yet other vendors are sensing what is coming and making the changes now, rather than later.

They are busting up the Svengali spin with a commitments to break away that has not been seen in years.

The trends I’m seeing are backing up the break up.

But just in case the lemmings reappear as Zombies, I’ll have my Zombie Apocalypse preparedness plan to review.

And I will be watching out. Looking around and keeping an eye on it.

It being the e-learning industry.

E-Learning 24/7

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For each of these items in e-learning

Authoring Tools

Actors & Avatars

Whether you want to call them human image characters, avatars or actors, they are going to be the new “hot” in 2013. In 2012 it has been all about collaborative/peer review with authoring products, and it still will be in 2013, but the avatars/actors with/without backgrounds are going to be in “fuego”.

Where can it go?

I believe that you can expect some type of voice capability with the actors/avatars as in the ability to either lip synch with the characters via audio tool/recording tool in the product will show up more in 2013.

One vendor already offers it in 2012, and knowing this industry – if something takes off and works, others will follow.

HTML5

Listen you love flash. You can’t live without it – but unless you want to be able to only see your courses on tablets that only support flash (and they all also support HTML5) or have zero desire to see your courses on the iPads (which support only HTML5), you will need to face reality.

In 2012, I’ve seen a slow uptake with tools that can output to HTML5.

Granted it is just at a base level, but expect more capabilities and power with HTML5. I see this power including interactive simulations, simulations in general and even the use of APIs or along those lines embed into the HTML5.

What is nice about HTML5 is it is less taxing on cpu resources, you can add geolocation and APIs and you can do with it than you can with Flash (speaking of fire, I expect nothing less than hot tempers with that point).

TinCan clearly will play a role in this, especially with self-contained apps on the iPads and eventually Android.  The challenge is how a 3rd party authoring tools using TinCan can auto upload their new built courses directly into a LMS that supports TinCan. 

Right now, you have to upload the course as you would with your SCORM wrapper, where you self-upload or use the course within an online mobile platform from your authoring tool vendor.

Just as you can with PENS authoring tools and the systems that support PENS (i.e with a click of a button you can push your course directly into the system, without the typical upload approach or download onto your sysem and manually upload it), people using TinCan will want and will use this capability (i.e. with TinCan).

Of course the system – LMS will need to support TinCan, and right now that is few and far between.

E-Learning in General

Tin Can

Whether it is a mobile learning platform, authoring tool or a LMS/LCMS – TinCan will be huge. How big?

I’m talking seven alarm fire which cannot be extinguished.

What is Tin Can?

In its simplest terms:

• Tin Can API will allow people to start create these self-contained apps in a way that lets them work with and Tin Can-enabled LMSs (h/t to Mike R)
• Ability to communicate instances between devices and the SaaS platform

Some Specifics about Tin Can

This information is directly from the ADL web site

• “The Tin Can API offers the same capabilities as RTWS, but takes it a couple of steps further.”
• “A piece of content/activity that uses the Tin Can API can be smart enough to detect whether or not it has a network connection. If there is no connection and the content/activity has its own storage, it can store data locally and transmit back to the LRS when a connection is present. Plus, activities can start offline, unlike RTWS.”
• The Tin Can API removes the need for an Internet browser
• Creating native mobile apps, simulators, and serious games that conform to the Tin Can API is easy
• Any real-world activity that can be logged by a person can be tracked by an LRS using the Tin Can API

Tin Can Guide from ADL (please note it is a PDF)

Quick Start Guide 

Tin Can API Spec

What’s will stop it?

Nothing. People want it, especially after you explain what it is and how it will work.

The problem is that many LMS vendors either don’t know what it is, never ask people or tell them about its on/off synch capability with mobile devices (key for learning – tablets), especially the iPad (which dominates the market).

One vendor told me they will incorporate it when it becomes certified – uh systems and authoring tools can be certified not a standard.  Another vendor and this seems to be the general consensus – a “wait and see” approach.

Wait and See

Let me explain why this exists and why it won’t work with Tin Can.

As a whole this is a lemming industry. Vendors love to see if something takes off or widely used and if yes, they jump on board. The number of innovators and early adopters is low in the industry – I wish it wasn’t the case, but that is reality.

You’ve seen it before:

• Social
• M-Learning
• Collaborative/Peer review
• Notes
• Integrated web conferencing
• Templates

Why it won’t work

M-Learning is on fire in 2012 and will continue to be so in 2013, especially on the tablet side (uh, to the vendor who constantly dogged me on it in 2010, who’s laughing now? But I digress.).

As such the next step has to be on/off synch and native apps, because people are downloading and using apps with their mobile devices. More people are working remote, more folks are using Wi-Fi than 3G or 4G with their provider (partially because of the economy, partially because of data limits from such folks as AT&T, Verizon, etc.).

Education is going more and more with tablets, businesses are going with tablets (in some cases, expecting the consumer who has the tablet to bring it into work and use it), consumers as a whole are using tablets.

Latest Data in support of tablets

• Tablets to enterprises around the world are expected to increase at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 48% (Goldman Sachs, Infinite Research, 2012)
• Global tablet sales will exceed 450 million units by 2016 (Business Insider)
• 82% of end users check their work e-mails, 72% do web research, 74% view or deliver presentations, 46% use business apps (Brainshark)
• Healthcare, Pharmaceutical are just an example of two verticals that usage is high with tablets

M-Learning with tablets

Forget about smartphones already. People prefer taking courses on tablets.  This is going to be a firestorm. You are either doing it or your not. And if you haven’t started yet, you better get going.

I’m not just talking about people being able to see your system or take courses via their mobile web browser. That is only have the solution. I’m talking app.

Ring of Fire

Personalization

As a whole we like products that offer some form of personalization. The ability to create your own look on Xbox 360 or in Second Life. The ability to select songs and videos for your own YouTube channel. The ability to select the apps you are interested in for your mobile device. Even with cable and satellite – ala carte provides you with a personalized option.

The same is true with this type of personalization for learning management systems. People want to turn on/off certain widgets or blocks. They want the ability to change the language to the language they use frequently rather than having the system be in one language for every one. They want to change their own look and add apps.

Expect more systems to fall add this capability. I love the language angle, because if I have one user who prefers Latin American Spanish, another who prefers French and others who prefer English, with a simple click each end user can now see their system in their specific language. I’m talking one click here without the company having to buy multiple languages for their product.

Right now it exists in only a few systems including one of my fav picks from a month ago, Docebo. 

For 2013, I see it simmering with more systems including it. Will it catch on fire in 2013? No, but sometimes I little burn can get it going. And I’m seeing a slow burn here.

Video

Thankfully, video didn’t kill the radio star although it did catch a few punches in there.

Video is going to EXPLODE. I’m not talking about adding a video clip or YouTube clips, I’m talking about full blown video.

Specifically

• Video streaming – either through the system itself – I believe it would be something like the vendor gives you 1GB of storage for free and then charges for more storage; you can stream from another server and tie into the LMS in some fashion
• Video management – Full tracking – who has viewed it, what did they view, what did they download, how many times; ability to upload their own videos – as in the end user shoots their own video Or you shoot it and then upload it
• Video editing – Upload video clips, edit, add some transitions, add audio, etc.
• Video recording – record video of off another device inc. through your smartphone or camcorder or web cam – ; I see the web cam as huge with smartphones or tablets a nice second, but Web Cam as the dominator
• Video Learning Platforms – Going to be big in 2013, already a few players out there – it is only going to grow and watch out – Sizzle Time!
• Video capabilities more robust than currently in authoring tools and definitely LMSs
• Video integrated with sims (this isn’t going to be similar to the Sun in terms of heat, but I expect you will see some vendors finding a way to get Video more in play with interactive simulations, heck even with the new actors than just the video clip. Steaming video can be pushed out onto a tablet, so why not add a flare to it?

Digital Textbooks

One of the biggest costs in the education arena is paper based textbooks. Thankfully, however digital textbooks are starting to make a solid appearance in 2012. I expect this to heat up in 2013 as more players enter the market beyond the better known publishers.

What is equally nice is my believe that you will see more eBook platforms within systems, but clearly not as much as I would like to see. Expect them to appear more on the educational side of house.

Compliance Features

Digital signature a must. Audit trails with significant more tracking a must. If you can tie into some regulatory agencies so much the better. If not, not a deal breaker.  Basically if you don’t have compliance you should, especially if you are targeting manufacturing, insurance, oil/gas, energy, financial, law firms and healthcare.

I believe compliance will be bigger than talent management for the LMS space. 

That said, look for more TM feature systems to add components such as payroll and benefits to align themselves more with the HCM space.

SaaS

SaaS already dominates over 90% of the LMS space and there is an upswing with systems offering only SaaS and no longer the option for hosting on the client’s servers.

I see that continuing, but I also see more authoring tool vendors entering the cloud. It still won’t be red hot, but there will be more movement than in the past.

Twist: I see by end of 2013,  some companies going with a hybrid next generation SaaS model. Currently most are using a private SaaS model.

Security

Going to be a hot question from consumers on systems. Security is one of biggest reasons people are hesitant about going into the cloud. That is why it is must to state what level is your security – AES 256 for example, than saying yeah we are secure. My USB is secure, until someone steals it.  Toss in privacy as a factor too.

I will say this – in over 15 years I have never heard of one LMS in the cloud being hacked.  In 2000, I had a LMS in the cloud and felt safe. You can too.

Bottom Line

I admit I am scared off fire. I am worried when a candle is lit in the house. When the fireplace is going (that is why I have an electric one – hey it does the trick) and when the BBQ pit is in full blaze and cooking mode.

But what I’m seeing in the market for 2013, doesn’t scare me.

It engulfs me.

And it will for you too.

E-Learning 24/7

The game is a myriad of fast action, no defense and some confusing rules. The best part of the whole game was halftime, where some pee wee football kids played a quick game.

Actually it scored some of the loudest cheers and best of all no cannon fire.

One of the things people love about halftime is the ability to run to the food areas among other places. They crave food, beverage and the enjoyment of doing nothing.

Sit back, grab a beverage, a quick snack and enjoy the LMS Trends Halftime.

I say SaaS, you say Potato (PO-TAT-TOE)

SaaS is where its at. Let me be clear on that, people want SaaS systems.  Now you can explain the difference between what is actually your SaaS system from the IT perspective and how it is different than what other people call a SaaS system, but here is thing.

No one cares. All they care about is whether the system is in “the cloud”.

SaaS or “in the cloud” to the consumer means that is it hosted on your servers or wherever you host your LMS and they can access it via the internet regardless of where they are located as long as they have an internet connection.

If you offer the SaaS option and the consumer hosts it on their own server, fine. I understand that some government entities and financial and a few others who are worried about security and blah, blah want it on their own servers. Yet, there are some major cons with this approach.

Here are just a couple:

• Pricing is typically higher to have you (consumer/company) on your own servers than “in the cloud”
• The Perpetual license isn’t that awesome, IMO, because unless you actually own the system yourself, rather than leasing it (which is what everyone does under the term “buying” it), than I see no point, especially in 2012.  Systems have come a long way from the days of yesteryear
• Security is quite strong for SaaS systems. In 13 years of doing this, I have never heard of a hosted system (which was occurring in the early days) being hacked. Web sites yes. LMSs? No.
• Some systems now clearly state their security level, AES 256 bit for example, so if you are that concerned ask them.
• If your system on your own servers goes down or has bandwidth issues, you are in some minor doo doo, especially when your end users come complaining to the person in charge of training.  I have seen systems on consumers’ servers have bandwidth problems especially if they do not have load backing.
• When you need a fix, then the LMS vendor must work with you either remote to solve it or if it is big nasty fix, go on site.   In a SaaS system they can do right from their location or wherever it is hosted in the cloud. Typically it is a faster fix than on your own servers.
• Updates – they have to download them to you and you have to load them. Unless your IT staff is standing by, time can be a challenge

SaaS and LMS vendors

Based on my research, 92% of LMSs in my directory of 455 systems, have SaaS systems. Twenty or so offer both options, but they are included in the SaaS numbers because they offer the SaaS. The rest host on your own servers. 

Even one time open source systems are starting to offer hosting for an additional cost.  The exceptions are there of course: Moodle and a few others, but people are moving more and more into the cloud.

I now pronounce you Authoring Tool and LMS, you may now integrate/interface

I’m still a believer that it is wise to use a 3rd party authoring tool rather than use an authoring tool built into a LMS. Mind you, there is nothing wrong with doing so, and there are some nice advantages to it – mainly one stop shop, but if you are a LMS vendor who does not have an authoring tool built-in, it will not cause your demise.

However, from the authoring tool vendor integrating into a LMS, it makes smart business sense on both sides of plate (LMS too) – especially if an end user can still use any 3rd party authoring tool AND with the authoring tool integrating into the LMS, you can output courses in HTML5, which IMO is HUGE.

I’m seeing a greater number of LMS vendors either interfacing (often the first step, prior to integrating) with an authoring tool vendor (has to be SaaS) or in the works of doing so (according to quite a few vendors I’ve talked to).

From a LMS vendor perspective there are a lot of pluses

• You do not have to build an authoring tool from scratch
• You can work out a revenue partnership – money for all – who doesn’t love that?
• A new distribution channel – again, on both sides – LMS & Authoring tool
• Most authoring tools in LMSs cannot output to HTML5 nor have robust feature sets – however there are more and more authoring tool vendors who can output courses into HTML5 and have some sweet feature sets
• The authoring tool – if they are already outputting to HTML5 and working on off/on synch clearly is cutting edge – again, who doesn’t want that – of course it has to work without issues on a tablet or smartphone (which so far is a mixed bag)
• Savings of cost – ties into not building from scratch
• Ability to use 3rd party authoring tool vendors is always a major plus – which most vendors do anyway – so adding this beyond ur new BFF is a no lose proposition
• The end user may already being using ABC authoring tool vendor so having them use it within your system eliminates some problems other vendors will face

Unlimited End Users and Zeppelins – What do they have in common?

If this was a utopian world everyone (including myself) would want unlimited users for one set fee rather than paying per bucket of users.  While there are some vendors who still offer this capability, many who tried have given up and returned to the seat packages.

Back in the late 1910′s, twenties and the mid- thirties, many people saw the future of travel via the mighty Zeppelins. Then this small problem happened with this airship called the Hindenburg and over night the future in Zepps went to Zip (from a travel perspective).

For vendors who offer unlimited, I am sure it is doing well for you and is a big positive for you. It is a way to counter free open source  systems.   Yet it just isn’t catching on with anyone else and considering this has always been a lemming industry – that should say something.

Unless your system is built on an open source platform (which exists for top two LMS vendors who offer it ) than the cost do go that route doesn’t make sense unless you have unlimited cash flow.

Can I have a custom domain to go?

There is an uptick in the number of vendors who are offering custom domains for customers. These are the domains who do not use yourname.abclearninglmsvendorname.com.

What makes this interesting are the two routes vendors are going.

• Include it at no additional charge
• Charging a one time fee

I like including it an no additional charge. I mean there are dozens of ways to integrate the cost into something else, so why deal with the headache of explaining why they should pay extra for it, when you can toss it in as a benefit.

The 3Cs – Compliance, Certificates and CEUs

Certificates has always been a feature that most vendors have offered in the past few years. But in the past 6 months more and more vendors are going that route with special bonuses such as

• Select various templates – beyond uploading your own
• Auto sending certificate to end user
• Tying it in with certification – especially with performance mgt/talent mgt features – as if unless you offer PM/TM it won’t exist – guess what for most vendors it does

CEUs

As more people jump into the certification angle, the ability to track CEUs is becoming more apparent.

Yes there were plenty of vendors who did this in the past, but CEUs including monitoring your continued need for accreditation (for whatever) is on the rise. At one time you only saw it with vendors whose systems targeted specific verticals. Not anymore.

There are several verticals that people acquire CEUs and similar to maintain their certification which most people are aware of – i.e. industries. But how many people are aware of various associations who require them OR specific job roles? 

Compliance

Vendors offering compliance has been around for many years, but again it is on the rise – especially with the magical word “regulatory”.

The funny thing is that for vendors who offer “regulatory”, the number who do not interface in some form with specific regulatory agencies is staggering.  The anti-argument for it – is that their customers do not want this feature and/or the accessing for auditing is worrisome from privacy concerns.

Whatever.   A bonus is the number of vendors who are not going to the digital signature route for compliance, audit tracking, etc.  If your country, state or province accepts digital signatures for legality purposes, than why not seek that in a system?

Especially one you are using for its regulatory/compliance and work audits?

Two more Trends

You can view them via my E-Learning 24/7 newsletter, which is 100% free and comes out monthly. The newsletter always includes two trends, one hot market, what is happening now and marketing buzz word.  It also includes social sharing with Facebook, Twitter, Google+, Linkedin and Pinterest.

Bottom Line

These are just some really hot LMS trends through July, which is typically one of the hottest months of the year for most of the world. 

Of course, there are LMS features in pipe including multiple editions, selling courses similar to an e-learning marketplace and viewing on tablets and other mobile devices.

And yes, there are systems who are offering some features no one else is doing – THANK YOU.

However, there continues to be a gerbil in the wheel mentality.

The same mentality we see when watching a halftime show featuring a band or someone shooting a basketball with a chance to win 1 million dollars if they can toss it from the other side of the court, blindfolded and people screaming in their ears (that would be awesome, actually).

Halftime has become synonymous with gimmicks and all other shlock that is readily available for your eyes to see.

The LMS market is the same way.

Seeing is believing.

And I believe we are seeing something wonderful.

E-Learning 24/7

Eye of the Tiger

What’s the best way to add components to your product?

In the past it was build it yourself (pricey) or find open source and customize it (could be pricey, but cheaper then complete build).

Now the route of “partners” is the way to go. The partner approach works this way: vendor A integrates Vendor B’s solution into their product. Some times, it is nothing more than a link – hidden from the end user – the screen shows a popup or goes to the “page” but in reality the end user is now in the other vendor’s solution. Then they can bounce back.

Vendor B can still sell their product as a stand alone or however this wish to do it and can still sell it/integrate or use an interface into additional vendor’s solutions.

While this has always been the case with web conferencing solutions going back for more than a decade with LMSs, etc., I’m seeing a nice increase with authoring tool vendors and even learning management systems incorporating via interface/integration or the “hidden link angle” other products.

One of the best known is eLearning Brothers. One of eLearning Brothers’ products is showing up in other rapid content authoring tools.  The product are an extensive set of stock photos with real human being images and not the cheesy clip art, one often sees in such tools.

Other vendors are exploring the addition of avatars that can communicate with one another.  I know of a few LMS vendors who are adding tools coming from a variety of non-LMS vendors, via partnerships.

I’m not talking about Skype here, but real e-learning tools and solutions going into your favorite LMS, TM system and yep, even authoring tool products.

Forecast: Continued Growth.  Why wait until everyone is moving ahead and then realize you could have had a V-8 or one of these tools in your product?

The Walls Came Down

Instructor led training whether it happens in your training room or in the classroom, still remains strong. But, guess what? Even the strongest proponents of ILT are realizing the inevitable, that e-learning is not only here to stay but is growing stronger.

As a result, ILT vendors are embracing e-learning through a variety of ways. Most notably the ability to create a PowerPoint online. I know what you are thinking – “Craig, this has always been going on”. Yes and no.  For some people WBT is merely sticking a PPT online converting it to Flash and whalla – a new course.

For others including myself, this is not WBT.

Thus the ILT vendors are saying to themselves, we are still committed to instructor led training, but we will dip our toes into the water, enabling people to upload a PPT or something similar and train people online through a web conferencing device.

They are starting to refer to them as virtual classrooms, picking up a term that already is in place.

I recall talking to one vendor who described the above to me and called it a virtual classroom, or as she excitedly said, “a webinar”.  I looked at her thinking, “am I on candid camera”?

Yet, for the ILT folks, it is not candid camera, it is integrating a tool that has been around for more than 13 years and doing it in such a way, that is seems novel.

Of course, it should be noted that for one vendor before you could offer your “webinar” to others at your company, you had to attend their face to face training, then get certified (on their product) before you could jump into the online space.

Hey, at least they are trying.

Forecast: Very slow.  Too many vendors are in the ILT space to just toss it aside and embrace e-learning. I surmise you will continue to see bits and pieces there, but it is like those folks who believe we did not walk on the moon. Despite all the evidence, all the data and all the research, they refuse to believe. It still occurs in the ILT marketplace (regarding WBT).

Once in a Lifetime

I believe a new sub-genre of e-learning is upon us. Take

• Video
• Content mgt system – More of a repository
• Deep tagging
• Publishing
• Recording via a mobile device or a cam or a digital camera
• Add keywords, transcripts
• Bookmarking
• Ability to enter a keyword on the video goes right to it each and every time
• Add editing features, enhancements
• Some analytics

What do you have? Video management systems.

In some ways it can be swung as a corporate learning YouTube with a touch of Premiere, a dash of video capturing, a couple of sprinkles of analytics, and a drop of publishing.

It can be a standalone or be placed into another solution.

Two systems are already in the space – somewhat similar, yet in many ways different.

• Momindum
• Panopto 

I believe this new sub-genre will grow, much like the social learning platforms of the past few years. The difference though, is that VMSs have a lot more potential and power than the social learning platforms (standalone) because the technology that is taking place in the space, especially with more people going the HD route and higher bandwidth speeds for at home and at the workplace.

What is really cool is that you do not need to be a tech expert, nor an instructional designer or an aficionado of video.  That’s what is going to be its real power.

Forecast: Slow for 2012 growth. Increase in 2013, of these types of capabilities on other platforms and tools – whether it is via an interface/integration or a piece of this and that.

The VMS offers lots of potential, but it will the masses jump on board? I believe it is possible, but as with anything else, ease of use, features and simplicity (yet robust) are the keys.

JukeBox Hero

You don’t need to be a jukebox hero to sign up for the new E-Learning 24/7 monthly newsletter.

Every month via your e-mail box you will receive the latest trends, insight, and my new products to check out. These products will hit across all genres of e-learning. You may never have heard of them, but now you will.

Then every other month, you will see who’s hot and who’s not in the following spaces:

• Content Authoring Tools
• LMS
• Social and Mobile Learning Platforms
• Mobile Apps – from various e-learning vendors who have apps for end users
• Other e-learning solutions

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Bottom Line

For some people, they want us (e-learning proponents) to jump into a fast car and keep on driving out of the learning scene.

Others fear that there will be red skies tonight because online learning is continuing to advance in many ways never seen on the web stage.

What will come next?

Destination unknown.

E-Learning 24/7